Middle East Situation 11 Years after the 9/11 Attack: from Arab Spring into Autumn of Disappointment

Pres. Barack Obama (a public domain image from Wikimedia Commons)

People the world over were euphoric over the death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of US Navy SEALS on May 2, 2011. Many people especially the Americans were gratified that justice was served to one of the most notorious terrorists of the world who was responsible for the death of thousands of innocent lives during the 9/11 attack in 2001. Although the death of bin Laden has not totally eliminated Al Qaeda, his terror group, its activities are significantly reduced and some of its top leaders are either neutralized or killed.

Then there was the Arab Spring in December 2010 that started in Tunisia where Prime Minister Ali was forced out from power by his own people. The movement spread to other Arab countries such as Libya and Egypt and others where long reigning and well entrenched dictators like Muammar Khadaffy and Hosni Mubarak were swept from power by people’s uprising. At present the leader of Syria is under threat of being overthrown too.

What is significant about the incidents is that it was the western countries which are instrumental in the ouster of the dictators. In Egypt the administration of US President Barack Obama played an important role to have the former Egyptian president resigned from office. France took the lead in helping the rebels fight the dictator Muammar Khadaffy.  Later, the participation of the US enabled the allied forces to target strategic areas with precision aerial bombs which weakened the dictator’s forces. Khaddafy was later killed as he tried to escape from Libya.

As soon as Mubarak was out from office it appeared that groups who are perceived as hostile to the west such as the Muslim Brotherhood loomed as the force that would come to power in the country. They won the majority of seats in the parliament, and Muhammad Morsi, a leading member of the group was elected as president. The west considers the Muslim Brotherhood as an extremist group whose agenda is not compatible with its ideals.

The 2012 anniversary of the 9/11 attack was marred with violence in the fledgling governments in the Middle East. Some people there were up in arms against a video that is offensive to the sensitivities of the Muslims. In Egypt the walls of the US embassy were scaled by protesters. It seemed that during that time, the military and the police were not around to quell the demonstration. That sight was in contrast to the previous demonstration leading to the ouster of Mubarak where security forces were always around to be on top of the situation.

In Libya, also during the 9/11 anniversary, the insurgents stormed the US consulate in Benghazi . Later, news broke out that US Ambassador  J. Christopher Stevens’ along with 3 American consulate staff was killed  in the attack.

Mitt Romney

Relative to the incident, President Barack Obama came under fire by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney for allegedly issuing statements apologizing to the protesters for that offensive video rather than condemning their attack of the US embassies in Egypt and Libya.                                                

In a press conference on the incidents, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton issued statement expressing disapproval of the inflammatory video but also emphasized her country’s respect of the rights of its citizens to freedom of expression. She also said that the act of violence is not a justifiable reaction to the offensive video. She also condemned the attack of the American embassies and their personnel, and stated that it was only carried out by small armed group, and it was not caused by the Libyan government or its people.                               

White House also issued statement distancing itself from a previous one that triggered Romney’s remark. President Obama blasted Romney for politicizing the incident in the Middle East. He found allies in the mainstream US media who grilled Romney during his own press conference for his remark that was critical to Obama.  However, Romney stood by his statements and said that the United States should not apologize for its values.

Some observers thought that the protest over the video was only a pretext for a planned and coordinated attack on American interest in the Middle East in the 9/11 anniversary. Many videos, articles, blogs and even websites that are critical to Islam have been in the internet for over a long time. And it is only now that a wide spread protest over that single video is staged when other posts are equally or more offensive. What is conspicuously significant is that the timing of the protest and attack in Egypt and Libya coincided with the anniversary of 9/11. With the incident, the world can only surmise that extremist groups such as Al Qaeda, which aims to dominate the world with its distorted interpretation of Islam is still around and is still capable of wreaking havoc around the world.

At present the situation in the Middle East is filled with uncertainty. It comes just about only two months before the presidential election on November 6, 2012. It will certainly become one of the main issues that will be exploited by both contending parties to get the nod of the voters. US voters are likely to give more weight to the economy than to foreign affairs in making their choice for a candidate. However, the incidents in Middle East are too remarkable to notice. Obama’s handling of it can make a significant impact on the result of 2012 US presidential election.                                                                       

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China and Philippine's Dispute over Scarborough Shoal

Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea has become a bone of contention between the Philippines and China. Both countries claim ownership of that barren shoal which is called Panatag by the Philippines and Huangyan by China. Scarborough shoal is composed of islets, reefs and an atoll. Beijing based its claim in history citing Yuan dynasty map of 1279 which included the shoal as part of its territory. The Philippines on the other hand premised its claim on geography since it is only about 123 nautical miles or 198 kilometer off Subic Bay while it is 350 nautical miles from China. The Philippines asserted that the shoal is within its 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and therefore it has the legitimate right to explore and use its marine resources in accordance with the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS).                                                                                                                  

Countries at the South China Sea such as China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines and to a lesser extent Malaysia and Brunei have overlapping claims over the outlying group of small islands and reefs in that sea. However, China claims sovereignty over almost all of the disputed islands. The conflicting claims resulted to an armed confrontation between China and Vietnam in the Paracel and Spratly’s islands. That engagement went badly for Vietnam, and since then China secured the area with its troops. The Philippines also claim some of the areas such as the Panganiban Reef in the Spratly’s which is just 87 nautical miles off its province of Palawan. But the Chinese fished at the sea around it. When the Philippines protested, China responded by building a four- story military garrison there.  China insisted that it is part of its territory. After some saber-rattling the Philippines backed down.                                                                  

Scarborough Shoal is not a part of Spratly’s Islands, and the Philippine government considers it as part of its municipality of Masinloc, Zambales. But the Chinese government also considers it as its own. On April 10, 2012 eight Chinese vessels with their crew were caught by the Philippine Navy with corals, giant clams and live sharks at the shoal. In response, Chinese authorities then sent navy vessels to that area.  Although there was no armed engagement between the Chinese and the Philippine vessels, the presence of the Chinese Naval ships enabled the Chinese fishermen to get away.  Relative to the incident the Philippine ambassador was called from his embassy in China, and the Chinese authorities told him that the Philippine government should let alone Chinese fishermen at the shoal and that its navy should not be sent there.                                                                 

The Philippines however, is not in a mood to submit to the threat of its giant and powerful neighbor. It has signified its openness to the assistance of its long time ally, the United States in the dispute.  The United States has so far shown supportive but sometimes ambivalent position with regard to the issue. Prior to the May incident the US senate passed a resolution on June 2011 condemning China’s use of force against smaller countries in the area and affirmed US willingness to use its military might against China’s aggression in South the China Sea. The US and the Philippines also agreed to conduct joint military exercise in the Philippines, an activity which further alienated the Philippines from China.  Despite that resolution from the US senate, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton issued statement that the US will not take side in the event armed conflict erupts in South China Sea.

Dealing with the Philippine resoluteness, China engages its small neighbor in the economic front. It declared 150 containers of bananas as infected with pest and as a result the fruits just rot in the Southern Chinese ports. Chinese tourist bookings to Boracay Island, a popular tourist destination, were also cancelled. The Chinese account for the fourth largest tourist arrivals after the Koreans, Americans and Japanese. The sanction had an immediate impact on the affected businessmen who relayed to the Aquino administration their situation. The president advised them to look for markets and tourists elsewhere.

Some Filipinos view the event at Scarborough Shoal as an act of aggression and violation of their country’s sovereignty by China. They marched at the Chinese embassy in the Philippines on May 11, 2012. Parallel march was also conducted at Chinese embassies in other countries. Before that protest China issued an advisory to its citizen in those countries not to go out of their homes in that date. To ease the tension, the Philippines sent a communication to China that the protest was an exercise of its citizens’ right for the redress of their grievance, and it was not initiated in any way by the government.

China is the world’s second largest economy and the third largest in size in terms of total area. It has also the world’s second largest army with 2.3 million active troops that are supported with a whooping military budget of US $129 billion in 2011.  It is also a recognized nuclear weapon state. Indeed, by all accounts China is the strongest country in the area at the South China Sea and perhaps in all of Asia. A small and poor country like the Philippines has a very limited chance of success against China in a military conflict. However, the Filipinos are united behind the national leadership of President Aquino to defend and protect a territory that they think as rightfully belonging to them.                                                                                                                           

The Philippines has so far made move to settle its dispute with China over the Scarborough Shoal. It has tried to propose with China to bring the matter to the International Tribunal for the Laws of the Sea (ITLOS), but the latter refused. It has also tried to get the involvement of its neighbors to resolve the issue. But so far, those countries have not yet responded. And most of all the Philippines keeps its line of communication always open with china in resolving their disputes diplomatically.

The disputed islets, reefs and cays in the South China Sea are mostly barren, uninhabited and devoid of vegetation. Apart from being rich fishing ground, they have little economic value at present. However, speculations are rife that those groups of island sit on vast natural gas and fossil oil deposits.  And it is probably the reason why China would want to have all of the islets of the South China as its own. China is a newly industrialized country with the biggest fossil fuel consumption in the world.                                   

With its super power potential, increasing international influence as well as its growing economic and military powers, China may eventually possess and control all of the disputed islands in the South China Sea. The country that can deter or stop China most from its aggression is the United States, the only remaining super power in the world. China will think twice before locking horns with the most powerful and influential country of the world.  Although the US is indebted financially to China, the latter owes its prosperity with its trading with the US and other Western countries. The US can do better in having partnership with countries in the area other than China if the contested areas are indeed rich in deposits of oil and other underwater mineral resources. The control of China of important key trading route in the sea may not be good for the US in its global projection of power. Adherence to international laws such as UNCLOS by nations having conflicting territorial claims of the disputed areas is perhaps the best option to avoid armed conflicts among them.

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